In cricket markets, margins vary. High-profile IPL matches may carry slimmer margins than lower-tier domestic fixtures.
A simple framework worth learning:
Implied probability = 1 divided by decimal odds, multiplied by 100%. For odds of 2.50, the implied probability is 40%.
Expected value (EV) = (Probability of winning multiplied by net payout) minus (Probability of losing multiplied by stake). If you believe a team's true win probability is 45% but the odds imply 40%, the bet has positive expected value in theory. If your estimate is wrong, it does not.
Quick example. India vs. Australia, Match Winner odds: India 1.75, Australia 2.20. Implied probabilities: India 57.1%, Australia 45.5%. Sum = 102.6%, meaning the overround is roughly 2.6%. If you bet 1,000 INR on India at 1.75 and India wins, you receive 1,750 INR (net gain 750 INR). If India loses, you lose 1,000 INR.
Beyond the margin, cricket odds are subject to the favourite-longshot bias. Studies consistently find that longshot outcomes (say, an underdog at odds of 15.0) are overpriced relative to their true probability, while favourites are slightly underpriced. This means bettors who chase high-payout bets systematically lose more over time than those who bet on favourites. Even favourite bets carry negative expected value after the margin, though.